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Desperate: How long to hold out / What would you do in my situation
Hey guys, Throwaway, for obvious reasons. I'm a regular in /pf, /bitcoin and /bitcoinmarkets but I chose to make this account because my girlfriend is a redditor too and I don't want to get any backlash by posting this on my main account. For that reason I need to obfuscate some details of my story but I think you guys will understand. I'm in a pretty bad situation and I need some advice on how to proceed. A few years ago I became in charge of my family's finances. One of my parents passed much earlier than expected. My remaining parent didn't understand anything about finance or investing so I naturally stepped in to take over things and try to plan something for our family so that we could be financially secure for at least 10 or 15 years, enough time for me to get to a position in my career where I could take care of everyone with my own income stream. I started learning about trading, first with Forex. I was trading EURUSD and USDJPY primarily just with small amounts at first. Spent a lot of time on babypips.com learning technical analysis and how to extract as much value as possible from chart patterns. When I started I just used small amounts of money. My initial bankroll was $500. I ended up using too much leverage and blowing through my whole account because of some poorly time trades. Yes I know I should have used some common sense and not taken gigantic risks but I was just learning at the time. I worked at it a bit and started getting profitable. I would usually do my work late at night watching charts and drinking espressos, and there were several times that I took positions that netted me large profits so I'm confident that I've learned from my early mistakes. Then about a year and a half ago I started hearing about bitcoin, and how it was getting more valuable. I started reading about the blockchain, and this technology that is going to revolutionize the way the world thinks about money. I was excited about it, truly. I knew in my heart that this was going to be gigantic. So I took a leap. I took about half of all the cash I had in my checking account and deposited it at Mt.Gox. I didn't use any of the inheritance money, just my own from my part time job while I was a college student. Yeah. I know. Terrible idea in hindsight. I never got the money out before the whole thing collapsed. I wish I hadn't done it, but at the same time it wasn't a great deal of money to learn a lesson. That we can't just trust individual exchanges. Anyway, I learned a lot during that experience. I spent a lot of time analyzing charts. I learned how to use MACD and RSI indicators. I started getting good at being able to time things and on paper (of course) I was making very good profits. It's a shame that I didn't cash out before the whole thing went to shit because I probably would have enough money to last atleast a few years. Anyway, after Gox, I became really depressed but I still believed in bitcoin. I still thought it was going to be around for a very long time so I started looking for some more honest exchanges. I knew that what happened to me was just an unfortunate event that was unlikely to happen again. After all, Gox was being run by a pretty shady group. After I picked myself back up, I decided to deposit some of the inheritance money in some legitimate exchanges. In total we had about $300k after medical bills and other issues from the settlement of the estate. It was sitting in a checking account until about April of this year. I decided to put in $50k into two exchanges to diversify my risk exposure. Half I put into bitfinex and the other half I put into bitstamp. I spent 7 to 10 hours a day trading. The problem is that I've been taking mostly long positions. Every time the price drops 30 to 40 dollars I have been telling myself this is it -- this is the bottom and will take a position to make up for previous losses. I cannot understand why this is happening. I made some serious money several times but for the past 6 months or so I have taken huge losses. After the initial 50k I deposited another 50k, and then after losing much of that, and determining (wrongly, I might add, but I don't think my analysis was wrong) that we were definitely at the bottom, I went on to deposit another 125k. So far I am down a lot. My average cost per bitcoin is around $623. The losses just keep compounding. I don't know what to do. I'm getting incredibly desperate and sallow. I don't know how I'm going to explain this to my family. They know very little about bitcoin, but I have mentioned it on occasion and how I'm an enthusiast. I've even sent my sister and cousins some bitcoin to get them started. But now I'm worried that maybe this isn't going to work out. Every day I get out of bed and dread looking at the price of bitcoin. Because I know its going to translate into losses on the positions I've taken. I have tried really hard to avoid looking at the price but at this point I cannot take it any more. I'm just looking for a reason, any reason, to believe that things are going to get better. So far I've lost a lot of the estate money and I'll do anything to get it back. But I'm getting to the point where I feel like I might need to get to grips with reality and just cut my losses, admit to my family what I did and try to make it up to them. So I ask of you, please convince me one way or another (with some solid reasoning) to either sell all the coins I have on margin right now or just hold fast and weather this storm. Thanks
Hello all! I'm a 23 year old male who has been in the workforce since HS, most of that time being in my father's convenience store so little to nothing to show for that. I've known that I want to branch into the territory of self-management and self-reliance for quite some time now but I'm stuck in a bit of a rut. I currently work for a temp agency as a shipping clerk for a 3PL. The pay definitely isn't bad for my age/position/experience (~$15/40hrs), but I find, regardless of anything, I kinda dread going into work everyday. I usually find this irritability to fade by the time I've been there for a few hours, but it's def. not something I look forward to in the mornings. That and my hours usually mean I'm getting off in the dead of the night; a lifestyle that I've lived for quite some time and am not at all a fan of. I find it to be really bad for social life, general sleep pattern, and overall sense of wellbeing. The other shipping clerks aren't really in a position to work these hours with their schedules. For a long time now, I've been reading up on plenty of PF material; investing, business building, and the like. Especially trading. I've adjusted my PF habits a lot. Whereas I used to get $1.6k untaxed from pops' store and spend nearly all of it, now I save nearly everything I can. I have a Wealthfront account that I deposit a few hundred into every month. I'll soon get my 401k and, potentially, a Roth IRA. Have an excel sheet I update with all expenses and capital. It's been a big improvement, at the least, to me. I have very few expenses (live with rents) and only really tend to spend on eating out (which I'm curbing bit by bit with mealprep), gas, and necessities such as toothpaste/shampoo/deodorant/etc. What I want to ask is, should I utilize a networking/job searching course I have that retails for a few k, or should I continue to study and slowly branch out into trading? FOREX is what I'd like to do and I study it very, very much. I don't want to dive into trading trading until I feel like I have a really solid base level by which to leap from. The general concepts of chart analysis and risk management are very appealing to me, but I don't know if I should really use that as a rationale by which to dive into such a new and foreign system. What are your thoughts? Am I better off sticking with and riding out my position? Despite my nearly every never-being-on-time issue (which I'm no longer going to let happen), my supervisor has noticed my general speed (i.e. hoards of Windows shortcuts) and novice PC expertise to locate things within our IMS and find information for truck loads. When we get heavy loads from a big account, I update the manager of the facility via email with entry/exit times, etc. - He sent me a personal email (on work email) telling me that he's happy to have a mind as sharp as mine and is always open to direct communication about ways to improve efficiency. That gets me excited and makes me want to dive 200% into learning everything about this business and seeing where I can offer suggestion; but I'm still technically a temp, not even part of the company.
Fundamental Analysis I believe that for an Altcoin to be worth anything at all, it MUST first have technical aspects which are built with the future in mind. This is what solely determines if a cryptocurrency has the potential for the mid to long term. Even with 5 new altcoins launching everyday, you barely see 1 a month that can last even the mid-term. Then, after that I judge the coins based on 7 mediating factors; developers, community, branding/marketing, popularity/virality, novelty, infrastructure, and liquidity. For more about fundamental analysis and an explanation of these factors, read up on the first few sections in my previous post about picking and trading the next profitable altcoin. In this post, I will focus more on technical analysis and trading strategies instead. With so many coins out there, I like to use these above factors to weed out all the weaker shitcoins, and focus on altcoins which are substantially different from others, and more importantly, provide more value than other cryptocurrencies. After which, I use Technical Analysis to judge entry/exit positions for trading them. What else do you think makes a cryptocurrency fundamentally better than another, and more sustainable as a currency? Technical Analysis Many will probably agree when I say that the Altcoins market is akin to the "penny stocks" of cryptocurrencies. In this sense, most altcoin markets have much lower liquidity, but have much higher volatility. Since there are over 200 different cryptocurrency markets to date, I prefer to narrow down my list of altcoins to a small handful, and buy under-valued coins or trade the breakouts. You're going to find it really tough to be watching more than 5 altcoins at the same time, so I highly suggest keeping your list small, and adapt your watchlist to the fast changing markets. If you're new to technical analysis, here's a really good beginner's video on daytrading Penny Stocks, which also explains the basics of chart reading and an introduction to basic trading jargon that I'll be using throughout this post. The important concepts to take note of are resistances & supports, breakouts that coincide with high volume, and the general idea that "what goes up must come down". See video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYK2a77TjvU So after you get the basics sorted out, you should be ready to learn how to trade! I'm gonna break this intermediate technical analysis tutorial down into five main portions, and have compiled videos from other trading experts to give even beginners a better overall idea, and teach you all you need to know to devise your own Bitcoin & Altcoins trading strategy. 1. Top Down Analysis Firstly, lets look at the top down analysis method of reading charts. I always begin by trying to understand the market from a bird eye's view. Compare both charts from a long term period (e.g. 1d) against one from a shorter period (e.g. 15m) to get a holistic view of the market. This will help give you a general perspective of market trends, while peaks & troughs give you an idea of market resistances & supports. Use these basic resistance & support levels to judge entry/exit prices. In general, previous high and low points are new resistances or support depending on where the price is, and points where u can see big breakouts will be the new short term resistance/support. To get a better idea of what I mean, watch these videos by Jason Stapleton who explains top down analysis, resistances & supports, and structure. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9yCc7lD21Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJmMU-8yicM 2. Retracements The concept of retracements is, in my opinion, the most important one that any trading enthusiast must grasp in order to understand how the markets flow. In essence, a retracement is a temporary price movement against the established trend, and helps us understand that the markets move in wave patterns as highlighted by the Elliott Wave Theory. One way to look at it, as highlighted by this video below, is that most price-actions follow a pullback rule to fibonacci retracement levels (38%, 50%, 62%). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VSWqM0jfIQ The most important concept to take away from this is "what goes up must come down"; that price movements in one direction are always followed by retracements in the opposite direction. Of course, not all movements will follow the same pullbacks, and these levels should only be used as a guide. Here's another video: "Understanding Fibonacci retracement lines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzHjxPxGzMw". So the question then is, how will we know if this counter-movement price action is a retracement or a reversal? There is no way to say for certain...
3. Trading on Volume Another important concept you need to understand is that large price movements almost always coincide with high trading volume. With this in mind, this is where the liquidity of an altcoin also comes into play; the higher the trade volume of an altcoin, the lower the spreads, and the more likely you will be able to make some profitable trades from it. In general, the trade volume is a good indicator of, and is proportional to the popularity of the altcoin at the current time. Apart from the actual trading volume itself, another good indicator is the change in volume over time; if you realize that the trading volume of an altcoin has been steadily increasing over the last few days, it could be an indication that a big price movement is coming up. 4. Breakout Patterns The last concept I want to share is breakout patterns. Although most people are familiar with this concept, many do not know how to profit from them. This is one of the best tools to use for planning your entry positions, while there are various ways to do so, which are highlighted by these first two videos below: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YZ4ORz-UJ0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gN-6D8nH0E 5. Advanced Trading Strategies Now comes the fun part: how can we take all that we've learnt so far and put into good use for trading Bitcoin/Altcoins? Here are some pointers for you:
What we've learnt is more of a tool to make better entry and exit positions.
Keep in mind trading the bitcoin & altcoin markets as you watch the rest of these more advanced videos, and I hope you'll be able to gain some insights to build up your Bitcoins & Altcoins trading strategy.
Granted, forex & equities trading is much different from bitcoin or altcoin markets. However, the fundamentals are the same, and you should learn to draw lessons from the strategies talked about in the videos to supplement your bitcoin/altcoins trading strategy.
In the next videos, more advanced trading strategies and chart patterns will be shared. These strategies may seem very specific, but my goal is to give you better understanding of how these analysis tools are used, and to give you an idea of how different tools can be used to develop a single trading setup. The specifics are not important; what I hope to achieve is to open up your minds to new ideas, expand your trading knowledge, and ultimately encourage you to explore a diverse variety of trading strategies. Read up more on some of the main ideas discussed:
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